Séminaires

The wicked learning environment of regression toward the mean

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Emre Soyer
Ozyegin

4 mai 2017 - T017 - De 13h30 à 14h30

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The environment in which people experience regression toward the mean inhibits accurate learning and valid intuitions in many domains, including medicine, sports and management. In predictive tasks, regression effects are only salient in rare cases where cues take extreme values. People often experience regression away from the mean. Furthermore, errors from predictions that ignore regression effects correlate highly with those of optimal predictions. In diagnostic tasks, people fail to recognize regression effects because they are motivated to seek causal explanations. Causes are attributed to easily identifiable factors that make good stories. A simple heuristic can overcome these inferential difficulties. In predictive tasks, a “50/50 rule” that gives equal weight to the cue and the mean of the target variable approximates optimal performance. In diagnostic tasks, the same rule can be used to generate non-causal counterfactuals to challenge possible causal candidates.

titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Harry Di Pei
Northwestern

12 février 2019


titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : François Geerolf
UCLA

18 décembre 2018


titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Marko Tervio
Aalto

13 décembre 2018


Titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Olivier Deschenes
UCSB

29 novembre 2018


titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Emmanuele Tarantino
Mannheim University

27 novembre 2018



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