Séminaires

Ambiguous Policy Announcements

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Luigi Paciello
Professeur , EIEF

12 octobre 2017 - HEC Campus - Bâtiment T - Salle T004 - De 14h00 à 15h00


We study the effects of an announcement of a future shift in monetary policy in a new Keynesian model, where ambiguity-averse households with heterogeneous net financial wealth face Knightian uncertainty about the credibility of the announcement. The response of aggregate demand to the announcement of a future loosening in monetary policy falls when financial wealth is more concentrated. The concentration of financial wealth matters because households with great net financial wealth (creditors) are those who are the most likely to believe the announcement, due to the potential loss of wealth from the prospective policy easing. And when creditors believe the announcement more than debtors, their expected wealth losses are larger than the wealth gains that debtors expect. So aggregate net wealth is perceived to fall, which attenuates the effects of forward guidance announcements and can even lead to a contraction in aggregate demand when financial wealth is concentrated enough. We calibrate the model to the Euro area after allowing agents to trade in short and long term nominal assets as well in real assets, and find that the effect can be quantitatively important.

Titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Claire Lelarge
Paris Sud

10 septembre 2019 - HEC Campus


Titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Larry Samuelson
Yale

13 juin 2019 - HEC Campus


Titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Gaetano Gaballo
Banque de France & PSE

19 mars 2019 - HEC Campus


Titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Diego Puga
CEMFI

12 mars 2019 - HEC Campus


Titre : TBA

Economie et Sciences de la décision

Intervenant : Daniel Chen
Toulouse School of Economics

21 février 2019 - HEC Campus



JavaScriptSettings