Cahiers de recherche

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Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

This paper studies the investment decisions and price impact of non-resident foreigners in the Paris housing market, employing unique micro-level transaction data over the period 1992–2016. We find that these “out-of-country” buyers generally purchase relatively small but high-quality properties in desirable neighborhoods and in areas with high ratios of compatriots. Ceteris paribus, they pay higher prices, hold for longer, and realize lower capital gains, highlighting the importance of information asymmetries and search costs in residential real estate. Crucially, however, out-of-country buyers’ quality-controlled purchase prices are also positively affected by home-country economic conditions, which suggests that global variation in the willingness-to-pay for real estate affects pricing in hotspots such as Paris. When instrumenting out-of-country demand, we find that it has pushed up prices of ex ante less valuable properties that have nonetheless been exposed to such demand.

Mots clés : foreign home buyers; secondary residences; search costs; private valuations


Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

I study the real effects a contracting innovation that suddenly made financial markets more complete: central clearing counterparties (CCPs) for derivatives. The first CCP to provide full insulation against counterparty risk was created in Le Havre (France) in 1882, in the coffee futures market. Using triple difference-in-differences estimation, I show that central clearing changed the geography of trade flows Europe-wide, to the benefit of Le Havre. Inspecting the mechanism using trader-level data, I show that the CCP was instrumental both to mitigate adverse selection issues and to solve a ``missing market'' problem. Increased risk-sharing possibilities enabled more gains from trade to be realized. The successful contractual innovation quickly spread to new exchanges.


Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Many financial assets are disseminated to final investors via chains of over-the-counter transactions between dealers. We model such an intermediation process as a game with successive take-it-or-leave-it offers: A dealer buys several units of an asset, and can sell some of them to his customers or to a second dealer, who can sell to his customers or to a third dealer, and so on. In equilibrium, the asset is disseminated through a sequence of OTC transactions between dealers. The number of dealers involved, the inventories they keep, and the prices and quantities they offer are endogenously determined. Our model gives a framework to analyze how assets are disseminated through OTC markets, how liquidity evolves along a sequence of transactions, and varies across different sequences of different lengths.

Mots clés : intermediation chains, liquidity, OTC markets, dealer markets


Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We use French matched employer-employee data to track skilled individuals entering the labor market during the late 1990s tech bubble. The boom led to a sharp increase in the share of skilled entrants in the tech sector, which offers relative higher wages at the time. When the boom ends, however, the wage premium reverses and these skilled workers end up with a 5.5% wage discount ten years out, relative to similar peers who started in a non-tech sector. Other moments of the wage distribution of the boom, pre-boom, and post-boom cohorts are inconsistent with explanations based on a selection effect or a cycle effect. Instead, we provide suggestive evidence that workers allocated to the booming tech sector accumulate human capital early in their career that rapidly becomes obsolete.


Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We propose a new model of interdealer trading. Dealers trade together to reduce their inventory holding costs. Core dealers share these costs efficiently and provide liquidity to peripheral dealers, who have heterogeneous access to core dealers. We derive predictions about the effects of peripheral dealers’ connectedness to core dealers and the allocation of aggregate inventories between core and peripheral dealers on the distribution of interdealer prices, the efficiency of interdealer trades, and trading costs for the dealers’ clients. For instance, the dispersion of interdealer prices is higher when fewer peripheral dealers are connected to core dealers or when their aggregate inventory is higher.

Mots clés : OTC markets, Interdealer trading, Inventory management.


Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We show that banker bonuses cannot be understood exclusively as incentive contracts, but also incorporate a significant risk sharing dimension between bank shareholders and bank employees. This contrasts with the conventional view whereby diversified shareholders fully insure risk averse employees. However, financial frictions imply that shareholder value is concave in a bank's cash reserves---making shareholders effectively risk averse. The optimal contract between shareholders and employees then involves some degree of risk sharing. Using extensive payroll data on 1.26 million bank employee years in the Austrian, German, and Swiss banking sectors, we show that the structure of bonus pay within and across banks is compatible with an economically significant risk sharing motive, but difficult to rationalize based on incentive theories of bonus pay only.

Mots clés : Bank compensation, risk sharing, bank risk, operating leverage


Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

How do resolution frameworks affect the private restructuring of distressed banks? We model a distressed bank’s shareholders and creditors negotiating a restructuring given asymmetric information about asset quality and externalities onto the government. This yields negotiation delays used to signal asset quality. We find that strict bail-in rules increase delays by worsening informational frictions and reducing bargaining surplus. We characterize optimal bail-in rules for the government. We then consider the government’s possible involvement in negotiations. We find this can lead to shorter or longer delays. Notably, the government may gin from committing not to partake in negotiations.

Mots clés : Bank resolution, bail-out, bail-in, debt restructuring


Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We measure demand for information prior to nonfarm payroll announcements using a novel dataset consisting of clicks on news articles. We find that when information demand is high shortly before the release of the nonfarm payroll announcement, the price response of U.S. Treasury note futures to nonfarm payroll news surprises doubles. We argue that this relationship stems from the fact that market participants have more incentive to collect information when uncertainty about asset payoffs is higher, as implied by Bayesian learning models. Thus, high information demand about macroeconomic news is a proxy for high macroeconomic uncertainty.

Mots clés : Public information, Macroeconomic News, Uncertainty, U.S. Treasury futures, Investors' Attention, Information Demand, Bitly, Media Coverage


Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We provide a new methodology to empirically investigate the respective roles of systematic and idiosyncratic skewness in explaining expected stock returns. Forming a risk factor that captures systematic skewness risk and forming idiosyncratic skewness sorted portfolios only require the ordering of stocks with respect to each skewness measure. Accordingly, we use a large number of predictors to forecast the cross-sectional ranks of systematic and idiosyncratic skewness which are considerably easier to predict than their actual values. Compared to other measures of ex ante systematic skewness, our forecasts create a significant spread in ex post systematic skewness. A predicted systematic skewness risk factor carries a significant risk premium that ranges from 7% to 12% per year and is robust to the inclusion of downside beta, size, value, momentum, profitability, and investment factors. In contrast to systematic skewness, the role of idiosyncratic skewness in pricing stocks is less robust. Finally, we document how the determinants of systematic skewness differ from those of idiosyncratic skewness.

Mots clés : Systematic skewness, coskewness, idiosyncratic skewness, large panel regression, forecasting


Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We develop a pricing model to analyze the joint impact of liquidity costs and market segmentation on asset pricing. The freely traded securities command a premium for liquidity level and global market and liquidity risk premiums, whereas securities that can be held by a subset of investors command additionally a local market and liquidity risk premiums. We find that the liquidity level premium dominates the liquidity risk premium for our sample of 24 emerging markets. The global market liquidity risk premium dramatically increases during crises and market corrections. Even though unspanned local risk is significantly priced for most markets, unspanned local liquidity risk premium is empirically small. We develop a new methodology for estimating unspanned local risk. Our results shed light on the channels through which liquidity affects asset prices in partially segmented markets and how this pricing relation changes over time.

Mots clés : International asset pricing, liquidity risk, transaction cost, emerging markets, market integration

Contacts  

Département Finance 

Campus HEC Paris
1, rue de la Libération
78351 Jouy-en-Josas cedex
France

Faculté  

Guillaume VUILLEMEY

Finance (GREGHEC)

Voir le CV

4th Annual HEC Paris Workshop Preliminary Program “Banking, Finance, Macroeconomics and the Real Economy”  


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