Cahiers de recherche

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Départements : Finance, Marketing

Online crowdfunding is a popular new tool for raising capital to commercialize product innovation. Product innovation must be both novel and useful (1-4). Therefore, we study the role of novelty and usefulness claims on Kickstarter. Startlingly, we find that a single claim of novelty increases project funding by about 200%, a single claim of usefulness increases project funding by about 1200%, and the co-occurrence of novelty and usefulness claims lowers funding by about 26%. Our findings are encouraging because they suggest the crowd strongly supports novelty and usefulness. However, our findings are disappointing because the premise of crowdfunding is to support projects that are innovative, i.e. that are both novel and useful, rather than projects that are only novel or only useful.

Mots clés : Crowdfunding, Entrepreneurship, Innovation

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We study price and liquidity spillovers in U.S. stock markets around mutual fund fire sales. We find that the well-documented impact-reversal pattern for the returns of fire sale stocks (e.g., Coval and Stafford, 2007) spills over onto the stock returns of economic peers, with a magnitude that is around one fifth of the original effect. These spillovers extend to liquidity and are not explained by common funding shocks or the hedging activity of liquidity providers. We conclude that they represent information spillovers due to learning from prices, thus identifying cross-asset learning as an important driver for the commonality in returns and liquidity.

Mots clés : Learning, Spillovers, Liquidity, Comovement, Rational Expectations

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

In an empirical study of cash mergers since 1996, we find that the equity options on target firms display a pronounced smile pattern in their implied volatilities which gets more pronounced when the merger success probability gets higher. We propose an arbitrage-free model to analyze option prices for firms undergoing a cash merger attempt. Our formula matches well the observed merger volatility smile. Furthermore, as predicted by the model, we show empirically that the merger volatility smile has a kink at the offer price, and that the magnitude of the kink is proportional to the merger success probability.

Mots clés : Mergers and acquisitions, Black-Scholes formula, success probability, fallback price, Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Do claims on the private sector serve the role of safe assets? We answer this question using high-frequency panel data on prices and quantities of certificates of deposit (CD) and commercial paper (CP) issued in Europe. We show that only very short-term private securities benefit from a premium for safety. Using several identification strategies, we show that the issuance of short-term CDs, but not of CPs, strongly responds to measures of safety demand. The private production of safe assets is stronger for issuers with high credit worthiness, and breaks down during episodes of market stress. We conclude that even very short-term private assets are sensitive to changes in the information environment and should not be treated as equally safe at all times.

Mots clés : Safe assets, Collateral, Short-term debt, Treasuries

Départements : Finance

We provide empirical evidence of the importance of hold-up problems for investment decisions in a large number of U.S. manufacturing industries. We exploit variation in the severity of hold-up problems between upstream suppliers and downstream customers resulting from import tariff reductions in upstream industries. We find that downstream customers respond by increasing investment. As theory predicts, the effect is stronger if the customers have little bargaining power and are not vertically integrated with their suppliers, if the suppliers produce differentiated inputs, if high uncertainty inhibits the use of long-term contracts, and if shipping costs are low

Départements : Finance

We exploit detailed transaction and position data for a sample of long-short equity hedge funds to document new facts about the trading activity of sophisticated investors. We find that the initiation of both long and short positions is associated with significant abnormal returns, suggesting that the hedge funds in our sample possess investment skill. In contrast, the closing of long and short positions is followed by return continuation, implying that hedge funds close their positions too early and “leave money on the table.” As we demonstrate with a simple model, this behaviour can be explained by hedge funds being (risk) capital constrained and facing position monitoring costs. Consistent with our model, we document that the return continuation following closing orders is more pronounced when these constraints become more binding (e.g., after negative fund returns or increases in volatility).

Mots clés : Hedge Funds, Short Selling, Profitability, Limits of Arbitrage

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Average stock price reactions of industry rivals in horizontal U.S. mergers and acquisitions around deal announcements are robustly negative. This finding is in contrast to the results in the existing literature, which focuses on smaller samples of deals involving mostly publicly listed firms. Rivals’ returns are more negative in growing and concentrated industries. Moreover, the negative rivals’ stock price reactions are related to future decreases in operating performance, increased probability of bankruptcy and challenges by antitrust authorities, and increased probability of rivals’ future acquisitions. Overall, these results suggest that M&As have strong competitive effects for the rivals of target companies.

Mots clés : M&As

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We explore how financial distress and choices are affected by noncognitive abilities. Our measures stem from research in psychology and economics. In a representative panel of households, we find that people in the bottom decile of noncognitive abilities are five times more likely to experience financial distress compared to those in the top decile. Relatedly, individuals with lower noncognitive abilities make financial choices that increase their likelihood of distress: They are less likely to plan for retirement and save, and more likely to buy impulsively and to have unsecured debt. Causality is shown using childhood trauma as an instrument.

Mots clés : Noncognitive abilities, financial distress, financial choices, saving, unsecured debt, behavioral finance, psychology and economics

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We develop a model in which collateral serves to protect creditors from the claims of competing creditors. We find that borrowers rely most on collateral when cash flow pledgeability is high, because this is when it is easy to take on new debt, diluting existing creditors. Creditors thus require collateral for protection against being diluted. This causes a collateral rat race that results in all borrowing being collateralized. But collateralized borrowing has a cost: it encumbers assets, constraining future borrowing and investment, i.e. there is a collateral overhang. Our results suggest that the absolute priority rule, by which secured creditors are senior to unsecured creditors, may have an adverse effect — it may trigger the collateral rat race.

  • FIN-2017-1184
  • Drugs, Showrooms and Financial Products: Competition and Regulation When Sellers Provide Expert Advice

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)