Séminaires de recherche

Expected Stock Returns and the Correlation Risk Premium

Finance

Intervenant : Grigory Vilkov
Frankfurt School of Finance & Management

14 septembre 2017 - T017 - De 14h00 à 15h15

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In a general equilibrium model with stochastic variance and correlation, we decompose the equity risk premium into compensations for variance, correlation and consumption risks. Based on this decomposition, we develop and test a new methodology for out-of-sample forecasts of the market excess return. Estimating contemporaneous variance and correlation betas from the joint dynamics of option-implied variables and index returns, we find significant out-of-sample R2’s of 10.4% and 7.0% for 3- and 12-months forecast horizons, respectively. While the predictability
of the variance risk premium is strongest at the intermediate (quarterly) horizon, the correlation risk premium dominates at longer horizons. In line with a risk-based explanation for the existence of a correlation risk premium, we document that expected correlation predicts future diversification risks.

Finance

Intervenant : Xavier Gabaix

13 juin 2019 - T104 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Finance

Intervenant : Adriano Rampini

23 mai 2019 - T105 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Finance

Intervenant : Luke Taylor

16 mai 2019 - T105 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Finance

Intervenant : Jessica Jeffers

18 avril 2019 - T104 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Finance

Intervenant : Emil Verner

4 avril 2019 - T104 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Contacts  

Département Finance 

Campus HEC Paris
1, rue de la Libération
78351 Jouy-en-Josas cedex
France

Faculté  

Guillaume VUILLEMEY

Finance (GREGHEC)

Voir le CV

4th Annual HEC Paris Workshop Preliminary Program “Banking, Finance, Macroeconomics and the Real Economy”  


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