Séminaires de recherche

Sovereign credit risk and exchange rates: Evidence from CDS quanto spreads


Intervenant : Mikhail Chernov
UCLA Anderson School of Management

3 mai 2018 - T015 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Sovereign CDS quanto spreads { the difference between CDS premiums denominated in U.S. dollars and a foreign currency { tell us how fnancial markets view the interaction between a country's likelihood of default and associated currency devaluations (the twin Ds). A noarbitrage model applied to the term structure of quanto spreads can isolate the interaction between the twin Ds and gauge the associated risk premiums. We study countries in the Eurozone because their quanto spreads pertain to the same exchange rate and monetary policy, allowing us to link cross-sectional variation in their term structures to cross-country differences in fscal policies. The ratio of the risk-adjusted to the true default intensities is 2, on average. Conditional on the occurrence default, the true and risk-adjusted 1-wee probabilities of devaluation are 4% and 75%, respectively. The risk premium for the euro
devaluation in case of default exceeds the regular currency premium by up to 0.4% per week.


Intervenant : Matthieu Bouvard
Desautels Faculty of Management

14 juin 2018 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Intervenant : Mikhail Simutin
Rotman School of Management

7 juin 2018 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Intervenant : Liyan Yang
Rotman School of Management

31 mai 2018 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Intervenant : Anton Lines
Columbia Business School

24 mai 2018 - De 14h00 à 15h15


Intervenant : Ian Martin

17 mai 2018 - De 14h00 à 15h15