A Minority Game with Bounded Recall


Mathematics of Operations Research

novembre 2007, vol. 32, n°4, pp.873-889

Départements : Economie et Sciences de la décision, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Folk theorem, de Bruijn sequence, Imperfect monitoring, Uniform equilibrium, Public equilibrium, Private equilibrium

This paper studies a repeated minority game with public signals, symmetric bounded recall, and pure strategies. We investigate both public and private equilibria of the game with fixed recall size. We first show how public equilibria in such a repeated game can be represented as colored subgraphs of a de Bruijn graph. Then we prove that the set of public equilibrium payoffs with bounded recall converges to the set of uniform equilibrium payoffs as the size of the recall increases. We also show that private equilibria behave badly: A private equilibrium payoff with bounded recall need not be a uniform equilibrium payoff

A non-technical guide to instrumental variables and regressor-error dependencies



2007, vol. 2, pp.3-20

Départements : Marketing, GREGHEC (CNRS)

A Queuing Framework for Routing Problems with Time-dependent Travel Times

H. Peremans, T. Van Woensel, N. Vandaele, L. KERBACHE

Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Algorithms

mars 2007, vol. 6, n°1, pp.151-173

Départements : Informations Systems and Operations Management, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Transportation is an important component of supply chain competitiveness since it plays a major role in the inbound, inter-facility, and outbound logistics. In this context, assigning and scheduling vehicle routing is a crucial management problem. Despite the existence of numerous publications dealing with efficient scheduling methods for vehicle routing, very few address the inherent stochastic nature of this problem. In this paper, a novel framework for modelling routing problems with time-dependent travel times due to potential traffic congestion is considered. The approach developed introduces mainly the traffic congestion component modelled through a queueing mode!. Standard test problems are used for illustrative purposes as well as for a discussion on the feasibility of proposed solutions if travel times are not constantKey words time-dependent routing problems - queueing - dynamic travel times

Analyst Hype in IPOs: Explaining the Popularity of Bookbuilding

F. Degeorge, F. DERRIEN, K. Womack

Review of Financial Studies

juillet 2007, vol. 20, n°4, pp.1021-1058

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

The bookbuilding IPO procedure has captured significant market share from auction alternatives recently, despite the significantly lower costs related to the auction mechanism. In France, where both mechanisms were used in the 1990s, the ostensible advantages of bookbuilding were advertising-related benefits. Book-built issues were more likely to be followed and positively recommended by lead underwriters. Even nonunderwriters' analysts promote book-built issues more in order to curry favor with the IPO underwriter for allocations of future deals. Yet we do not observe valuation or post-IPO return differentials that suggest these types of promotion have any value to the issuing firm.

Antecedents of creative decision making in organizational crisis: A team-based simulation

A. SOMMER, C. Pearson

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

octobre 2007, vol. 74, n°8, pp.1234-1251

Départements : Management et Ressources Humaines, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Organizational crisis management, Teams, Decision making, Creativity

Although it has been claimed that the devastation and complexities that characterize an organizational crisis may be addressed most effectively with creative solutions, theoretical and empirical research examining this challenge is scarce. We developed a theoretical model concerning creative decision making during organizational crisis for crisis management teams. To test this theory, we collected data from 191 individuals in 37 teams who participated in multi-hour, multi-phased organizational crisis simulations in the United States and Canada. Using regression analysis, we found that crisis management teams generated a creative decision when they were familiar with solutions, trusted their team members, and had creative intentions. This study supports organizational efforts to leverage education, training and accountability to reinforce creativity in crisis decision making.Keywords: Organizational crisis management; Teams; Decision making; Creativity

Automatic Formulation of Stochastic Programs Via an Algebraic Modeling Language

J. Thénié, C. VAN DELFT, J. Vial

Computational Management Science

janvier 2007, vol. 4, n°1, pp.17-40

Départements : Informations Systems and Operations Management, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Stochastic programming, Algebraic modeling language, Deterministic equivalent

This paper presents an open source tool that automatically generates the so-called deterministic equivalent in stochastic programming. The tool is based on the algebraic modeling language ampl. The user is only required to provide the deterministic version of the stochastic problem and the information on the stochastic process, either as scenarios or as a transitions-based event tree

Banking deregulation and Industry Structure: Evidence From the French Banking Act of 1985

M. Bertrand, A. Schoar, D. THESMAR

The Journal of Finance

avril 2007, vol. 62, n°2, pp.597-628

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We investigate how the deregulation of the French banking industry in the 1980s affected the real behavior of firms and the structure and dynamics of product markets. Following deregulation, banks are less willing to bail out poorly performing firms and firms in the more bank-dependent sectors are more likely to undertake restructuring activities. At the industry level, we observe an increase in asset and job reallocation, an improvement in allocative efficiency across firms, and a decline in concentration. Overall, these findings support the view that a more efficient banking sector helps foster a Schumpeterian process of “creative destruction.”

Calibration Accuracy of a Judgmental Process that Predicts the Commercial Success of New Product Ideas

T. B. ASTEBRO, D. Koehler

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

octobre 2007, vol. 20, n°4, pp.381-403

Départements : Stratégie et Politique d’Entreprise, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : intuitive judgment; forecasting; calibration; bootstrapping; case-based judgment

We examine the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes or cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to arrive at a forecast of the idea's commercialization prospects. Data regarding actual commercialization outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive evaluation of each idea conducted by the IAP produces forecasts that accurately rank order the ideas in terms of their probability of commercialization. The focus of the evaluation process on case-specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations such as the base rate (BR) and predictability of commercialization for new product ideas in general, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization.

Code and Conduct in French Cuisine: Impact of code changes on external evaluations

R. DURAND, H. Rao, P. Monin

Strategic Management Journal

mai 2007, vol. 28, n°5

Départements : Stratégie et Politique d’Entreprise, GREGHEC (CNRS)

We study the effects of organizational code-preserving and code-violating changes on externalevaluations by third parties'an essential but under-studied strategic outcome. We define codepreservingchanges as a variation in the firm's product range that preserves the social codewithin which the firm positions its offering. By contrast, a code-violating change correspondsto a variation in the product range that breaks with past codes and embraces another socialcode. Our analyses of French haute cuisine restaurants show that code-preserving changes andcode-violating changes have positive effects on external evaluations. Both effects decline withprior evaluations received by the organization, but only the effect of code-violating changesis reduced with age. Moreover, external evaluations improve when restaurants undertake morecode-preserving changes than their direct competitors but decline when they make more codeviolatingchanges than competitors. These results enable us to derive implications for researchon strategic change, strategic groups, and strategic social positioning. Keywords code ' strategic changes ' external evaluations ' social positioning

Collusion and the organization of delegated expertise


Journal of Economic Theory

novembre 2007, vol. 137, n°1, pp.271-299

Départements : GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Expertise; Organization; Collusion