Articles

Catching Falling Knives: Speculating on Liquidity Shocks

J. E. COLLIARD

Management Science

août 2017, vol. 63, n°8, pp.2573-2591

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : supply information • nonfundamental uncertainty • market crashes • arbitrage • high-frequency trading

http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2440


Many market participants invest resources to acquire information about liquidity rather than fundamentals. I show that agents using such information can reduce the magnitude of short-lived pricing errors by trading against liquidity shocks. However, the short-run stabilizing effect of this behavior also makes it more difficult to identify liquidity shocks, a signal-jamming effect that slows down price discovery in the long run. As more agents invest in nonfundamental information, market prices become more resilient to liquidity shocks but also recover more slowly from temporary price deviations.

CoMargin

J. A. CRUZ LOPEZ, J. HARRIS, C. HURLIN, C. PERIGNON

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

septembre 2017, vol. 52, n°5, pp.2183–2215

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Collateral, Counterparty Risk, Derivatives Markets, Extreme Dependence

https://depts.washington.edu/jfqa/2016/02/25/comargin/


We present CoMargin, a new methodology to estimate collateral requirements in derivatives central counterparties (CCPs). CoMargin depends on both the tail risk of a given market participant and its interdependence with other participants. Our approach internalizes trading externalities and enhances the stability of CCPs, thus, reducing systemic risk concerns. We assess our methodology using proprietary data from the Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation that includes daily observations of the actual trading positions of all of its members from 2003 to 2011. We show that CoMargin outperforms existing margining systems by stabilizing the probability and minimizing the shortfall of simultaneous margin-exceeding losses

Dynamic Dependence and Diversification in Corporate Credit

Peter CHRISTOFFERSEN, Kris JACOBS, Xisong JIN, H. LANGLOIS-BERTRAND

Review of Finance

2017, pp.1-40

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Credit risk, Default risk, CDS, Dynamic dependence, Copula

https://academic.oup.com/rof/article/doi/10.1093/rof/rfx034/3980187/Dynamic-Dependence-and-Diversification-in


We characterize dependence in corporate credit and equity returns for 215 firms using a new class of large-scale dynamic copula models. Copula dependence and especially tail dependence are highly variable and persistent, increase significantly in the financial crisis, and have remained high since. The most drastic increases in credit dependence occur in July/August of 2007 and in August of 2011 and the decrease in diversification potential caused by the increases in dependence and tail dependence is large. Credit default swap correlation dynamics are important determinants of credit spreads

Housing Collateral and Entrepreneurship

Martin SCHMALZ, David SRAER, D. THESMAR

The Journal of Finance

février 2017, vol. 72, n°1, pp.99-132

Départements : Finance


We show that collateral constraints restrict firm entry and postentry growth, using French administrative data and cross-sectional variation in local house-price appreciation as shocks to collateral values. We control for local demand shocks by comparing treated homeowners to controls in the same region that do not experience collateral shocks: renters and homeowners with an outstanding mortgage, who (in France) cannot take out a second mortgage. In both comparisons, an increase in collateral value leads to a higher probability of becoming an entrepreneur. Conditional on entry, treated entrepreneurs use more debt, start larger firms, and remain larger in the long run.

Investor Horizon and the Life Cycle of Innovative Firms: Evidence from Venture Capital

J.-N. BARROT

Management Science

septembre 2017, vol. 63, n°9, pp.3021-3043

Départements : Finance

Mots clés : finance; innovation; venture capital; entrepreneurship; investor horizon

https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2482


This paper studies whether and how the contractual horizon of venture capital funds affects their investments in innovative firms. I find that funds with a longer remaining horizon select younger companies at an earlier stage of their development, which grow their patent stock significantly more than companies financed by funds with a shorter horizon. The sensitivity of investment decisions to horizon is stronger among experienced venture capital firms, who allocate investments across a larger number of fund vintages. Finally, I find that the interaction of funds’ fixed horizon with their option-like compensation structure affects their investment decisions: when early performance has been high, fund managers target less innovative companies. These findings shed light on the drivers of venture capital investment decisions and on their implications for the type of companies that receive venture capital financing

Linear-Rational Term Structure Models

D. FILIPOVIC, M. LARSSON, A. TROLLE

The Journal of Finance

avril 2017, vol. 72, n°2, pp.655-704

Départements : Finance


We introduce the class of linear-rational term structure models in which the state price density is modeled such that bond prices become linear-rational functions of the factors. This class is highly tractable with several distinct advantages: (i) ensures nonnegative interest rates, (ii) easily accommodates unspanned factors affecting volatility and risk premiums, and (iii) admits semi-analytical solutions to swaptions. A parsimonious model specification within the linear-rational class has a very good fit to both interest rate swaps and swaptions since 1997 and captures many features of term structure, volatility, and risk premium dynamics—including when interest rates are close to the zero lower bound

Relative Optimism and the Home Bias Puzzle

B. SOLNIK, L. ZUO

Review of Finance

août 2017, vol. 21, n°5, pp.2045–2074

Départements : Finance

Mots clés : G15 - International Financial Markets G02 - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

https://academic.oup.com/rof/article/21/5/2045/2670076


We study whether relative optimism leads to home bias in portfolio holdings by looking at two novel databases: a survey that includes expectations of identified professional asset management companies for equity, bonds, and currencies, and the International Monetary Fund portfolio holdings data for equity and bonds. We document that relative optimism for equity is persistent over the period 1997–2012, but relative optimism for bonds and currencies exhibits more time-series variation. Moreover, we show that relative optimism is an economically significant variable that helps explain home bias in portfolio holdings, not only for equity, but also for bonds

Risk-Based Capital Requirements for Banks and International Trade

B. DEMIR-PAKEL, T. K. MICHALSKI, E. ORS

Review of Financial Studies

novembre 2017, vol. 30, n°11, pp.3970-4002

Départements : Economie et Sciences de la décision, GREGHEC (CNRS), Finance

https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article/30/11/3970/3954037


We test the trade finance channel of exports by controlling for the bank credit channel. Using Turkey’s July 2012 adoption of Basel II as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine whether shocks to trade financing costs affect exports. With data for 16,662 Turkish exporters shipping 2,888 different products to 158 countries, we find that the share of letters-of-credit-based exports decreases (increases) when the associated risk weights for counterparty exposure increase (decrease) after the adoption of Basel II. However, growth of firm-product-country-level exports remains unaffected. Trade financing might have a lesser role in exports than previously suggested by the previous literature. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies

Systemic Risk in Clearing Houses: Evidence from the European Repo Market

C. BOISSEL, F. DERRIEN, E. ORS, D. THESMAR

Journal of Financial Economics

septembre 2017, vol. 125, n°3, pp.511-536

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : repurchase agreement; sovereign debt crisis; LTRO; secured money market lending; clearing houses

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X17301277


We study how crises affect Central Clearing Counterparties (CCPs). We focus on a large and safe segment of CCP-cleared repo market during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. We develop a simple model to infer CCP stress, which is measured as repo rates’ sensitivity to sovereign CDS spreads and jointly captures (1) the effectiveness of haircut policies, (2) CCP-member default risk (conditional on sovereign default), and (3) CCP default risk (conditional on both sovereign and CCP-member default). During 2011, repo rates strongly respond to sovereign risk, particularly for GIIPS countries: repo investors behaved as if the conditional probability of CCP default was substantial. (100 words)

The Political Economy of Financial Innovation: Evidence from Local Governments

C. PERIGNON, B. VALLEE

Review of Financial Studies

juin 2017, vol. 30, n°6, pp.1903-1934

Départements : Finance, GREGHEC (CNRS)

https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article/30/6/1903/3098538/The-Political-Economy-of-Financial-Innovation


We investigate the development of an innovative and high-risk type of borrowing for local governments, known as structured loans. Using transaction data for more than 2,700 local governments in France, we show that the adoption of these instruments is more frequent for politicians from highly indebted local governments, from politically contested areas, and during political campaigns. Taking on structured loans helps incumbents win a reelection, and initially allows them to maintain lower taxes. Our findings illustrate how financial innovation can amplify principal-agent problems within the political system


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