Characterizations of Smooth Ambiguity Based on Continuous and Discrete Data


Mathematics of Operations Research

février 2017, vol. 42, n°1, pp.167 - 178

Départements : Economie et Sciences de la décision

Mots clés : smooth ambiguity; variational preferences; revealed preference; completely monotone functions; Afriat inequalities; moment problem

In the Anscombe-Aumann setup, we provide conditions for a collection of observations to be consistent with a well-known class of smooth ambiguity preferences (Klibanoff P, Marinacci M, Mukerji S (2005) A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity. Econometrica 73(6):1849–1892.). Each observation is assumed to take the form of an equivalence between an uncertain act and a certain outcome. We provide three results that describe these conditions for data sets of different cardinality. Our findings uncover surprising links between the smooth ambiguity model and classic mathematical results in complex and functional analysis.

Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision

Richard Bradley, Casey Helgeson, B. HILL

Philosophy of Science

juillet 2017, vol. 84, n°3, pp.500-522

Départements : Economie et Sciences de la décision, GREGHEC (CNRS)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in its periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model