Time series properties of the renewable energy diffusion process: Implications for energy policy design and assessment


Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews

décembre 2015, vol. 52, pp.1680-1692

Départements : Information Systems and Operations Management, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Unit root, Cross-sectional dependence, Renewable energy diffusions, Renewable energy policies

Confronted by increasingly tight budgets and a broad range of alternative options, policy makers need empirical methods to evaluate the effectiveness of policies aimed at supporting the diffusion of renewable energy sources (RES). Rigorous empirical studies of renewable energy policy effectiveness have typically relied on panel data models to identify the most effective mechanisms. A common characteristic of some of these studies, which has important econometric implications, is that they assume that the contribution of RES to total electricity generation will be stationary around a mean. This paper reviews such assumptions and rigorously tests the time series properties of the contribution of RES in the energy mix for the presence of a unit root. To that end, we use both individual and panel unit root tests to determine whether the series exhibit non-stationary behavior at the country level as well as for the panel as a whole. The analysis, applied to a panel of 19 OECD countries over the period 1990-2012, provides strong evidence that the time series of the renewable share of electricity output are not stationary in 17 of the 19 countries examined. This finding has important implications for energy policy assessment and energy policy making, which are discussed in the paper

Trend Networks: Multidimensional Proximity and the Formation of Aesthetic Choices in the Creative Economy


Regional Studies

2015, vol. 49, n°6, pp.973-984

Mots clés : Creative industries, Fashion industry, Proximity, Status, Stylistic networks

Trend networks: multidimensional proximity and the formation of aesthetic choices in the creative economy, Regional Studies. In sociology, a key challenge is to comprehend the formation of aesthetic choices in the highly uncertain settings of the creative industries. The multidimensional proximity perspective – which goes beyond the geographical – developed in economic geography can be used to complement sociological approaches to the formation of choices in creative contexts. The question is explored using a comprehensive large-scale longitudinal dataset of high-end fashion organizations and their selection of stylistic trends presented at biannual fashion shows. Using a social network analysis approach, proximity constructs (geographical, temporal, organizational and status-based) are used to explain the choice of trends conceptualized as temporary proximity

Truthful Equilibria in Dynamic Bayesian Games



septembre 2015, vol. 83, n°5, pp.1795-1848

Départements : Economie et Sciences de la décision, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Bayesian games, Repeated games, Folk theorem.

This paper characterizes an equilibrium payoff subset for dynamic Bayesian games as discounting vanishes. Monitoring is imperfect, transitions may depend on actions, types may be correlated and values may be interdependent. The focus is on equilibria in which players report truthfully. The characterization generalizes that for repeated games, reducing the analysis to static Bayesian games with transfers. With independent private values, the restriction to truthful equilibria is without loss, except for the punishment level; if players withhold their information during punishment-like phases, a folk theorem obtains

Understanding the Dynamics of Service-Oriented Architecture Implementation


Journal of Management Information Systems

automne 2015, vol. 32, n°2, pp.104-133

Départements : Information Systems and Operations Management, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Normative commitment, Organizational traps, Service-oriented architecture (SOA), System dynamics, Tipping point

Despite the potential benefits, many organizations have failed in service-oriented architecture (SOA) implementation projects. Prior research often used a variance perspective and neglected to explore the complex interactions and timing dependencies between the critical success factors. This study adopts a process perspective to capture the dynamics while providing a new explanation for the mixed outcomes of SOA implementation. We develop a system dynamics model and use simulation analysis to demonstrate the phenomenon of “tipping point.” That is, under certain conditions, even a small reduction in the duration of normative commitment can dramatically reverse, from success to failure, the outcome of an SOA implementation. The simulation results also suggest that (1) the duration of normative commitment can play a more critical role than the strength, and (2) the minimal duration of normative commitment for a successful SOA implementation is associated positively with the information delay of organizational learning of SOA knowledge. Finally, we discuss the theoretical causes and organizational traps associated with SOA implementation to help IT managers make better decisions about their implementation projects

Using Real Activities to Avoid Goodwill Impairment Losses: Evidence and Effect on Future Performance


Journal of Business Finance & Accounting

avril-mai 2015, vol. 42, n°3 & 4, pp.515–554

Départements : Comptabilité et Contrôle de Gestion, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : goodwill impairment, earnings management, cash flow management, real activities

We examine whether managers postpone the recognition of goodwill impairmentby manipulating cash flows and the consequences of such a strategy on future performance. According to SFAS 142, an impairment loss must be recognized if the reporting unit’s total fair value to which goodwill has been allocated is less than its book value. A growing body of empirical evidence shows that managers delay the recognition of goodwill impairment in accounting books. However, past literature is silent on how managers convince various gatekeepers (e.g., auditors, financial analysts) that recognizing an impairment loss is unnecessary although it seems economically justified. SFAS 142 requires managers to forecast future cash flows to justify the decision to recognize, or not, an impairment loss. Therefore, we predict that managers manipulate upward current cash flows to support their choice to avoid reporting an impairment loss. We also test whether or not this real earnings management is detrimental to future performance. Based on a sample of US firms over the period 2003–2011, we documentthat firms suspected of postponing goodwill impairment losses exhibit significantly positivediscretionary cash flows compared to various control groups. We also find that this real activitiesmanipulation is detrimental to future performance

Value Creation and Value Capture under Moral Hazard: Exploring the Micro-Foundations of Buyer-Supplier Relationships


Strategic Management Journal

août 2015, vol. 36, n°8, pp.1146-1163

Départements : Stratégie et Politique d’Entreprise, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Value-based strategy, Organizational incentives, Agency theory, Rivalry, Moral hazard

We combine the formalism of a principal–agent framework with a value-based analysis in order to investigate the micro-foundations of business partner selection and the division of value in contracting relationships. In particular, we study how the key contracting parameters such as efficiency, transactional integrity, incentive alignment, and gaming affect outcomes when buyers face competing suppliers. We show that integrity and efficiency increase value creation and capture for all parties and are complements. While incentive gaming is unambiguously bad for value creation, and reduces buyers' value capture, it can benefit some suppliers. For alignment, we find that neither party has an incentive to use fully aligned performance measures that maximize total value creation. We conclude by analyzing buyers' and suppliers' incentives to invest in integrity

Vulnerable banks


Journal of Financial Economics

mars 2015, vol. 115, n°3, pp.471-482

Départements : Finance

Mots clés : Banks, Systemic risk, Fire sales, Price pressure, Contagion

We present a model in which fire sales propagate shocks across bank balance sheets. When a bank experiences a negative shock to its equity, a natural way to return to target leverage is to sell assets. If potential buyers are limited, then asset sales depress prices, in which case one bank¿s sales impact other banks with common exposures. We show how this contagion effect adds up across the banking sector, and how it can be estimated empirically using balance sheet data. We compute bank exposures to system-wide deleveraging, as well as the spillovers induced by individual banks. Applying the model to European banks, we evaluate a variety of interventions to reduce their vulnerability to fire sales during the sovereign debt crisis

What is beneath the surface? Option pricing with multifrequency latent states


Journal of Econometrics

août 2015, vol. 187, n°2, pp.498-511

Départements : Finance

Mots clés : Markov-switching multifractal, Particle filter, Regime-switching, Stochastic volatility, Jump-risk premium, Option pricing

We introduce a tractable class of multi-factor price processes with regime-switching stochastic volatility and jumps, which flexibly adapt to changing market conditions and permit fast option pricing. A small set of structural parameters, whose dimension is invariant to the number of factors, fully specifies the joint dynamics of the underlying asset and options implied volatility surface. We develop a novel particle filter for efficiently extracting the latent state from joint S&P 500 returns and options data. The model outperforms standard benchmarks in- and out-of-sample, and remains robust even in the wake of seemingly large discontinuities such as the recent financial crisis.

Wrong-way driving crashes on French divided roads


Accident Analysis and Prevention

février 2015, vol. 75, pp.69-76

Départements : Economie et Sciences de la décision, GREGHEC (CNRS)

Mots clés : Wrong-way driving, Logistic regression, Elderly driver, Drunk driving

Context: The objective of divided roads is to increase users’ safety by posting unidirectional traffic flows. It happens however that drivers proceed in the wrong direction, endangering themselves as well as other users. The crashes caused by wrong-way drivers are generally spotlighted by the media and call for public intervention.Objectives: This paper proposes a characterization of wrong-way driving crashes occurring on French divided road on the 2008–2012 period. The objective is to identify the factors that delineate between wrong-way driving crashes and other crashes.Method: Building on the national injury road crash database, 266 crashes involving a wrong-way driver were identified. Their characteristics (related to timing, location, vehicle and driver) are compared to those of the 22,120 other crashes that occurred on the same roads over the same period. The comparison relies on descriptive statistics, completed by a logistic regression.Results: Wrong-way driving crashes are rare but severe. They are more likely to occur during night hours and on non-freeway roads than other crashes.Wrong-way drivers are older, more likely to be intoxicated, to be locals, to drive older vehicles, mainly passenger cars without passengers, than other drivers.Perspectives: The differences observed across networks can help prioritizing public intervention. Most of the identified WW-driving factors deal with cognitive impairment. Therefore, the specific countermeasures such as alternative road signs should be designed for and tested on cognitively impaired drivers. Nevertheless, WW-driving factors are also risk factors for other types of crashes (e.g. elderly driving, drunk driving and age of the vehicle). This suggests that, instead of (or in addition to) developing WW-driving specific countermeasures, managing these risk factors would help reducing a larger number of crashes