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Analogies and Theories: Formal Models of Reasoning

Analogies and Theories: Formal Models of Reasoning

I. GILBOA, L. SAMUELSON, D. SCHMEIDLER

Oxford University Press, Roumanie

2015



The book describes formal models of reasoning that are aimed at capturing the way that economic agents, and decision makers in general think about their environment and make predictions based on their past experience. The focus is on analogies (case-based reasoning) and general theories (rule-based reasoning), and on the interaction between them, as well as between them and Bayesian reasoning. A unified approach allows one to study the dynamics of inductive reasoning in terms of the mode of reasoning that is used to generate predictions

Enjeux diplomatiques et stratégiques 2014

P. CHAIGNEAU

Economica, France

2014



Alors que la guerre civile syrienne a franchi une étape lors du recul militaire américain, Washington se prépare à un désengagement d’Afghanistan sur fond de reprise de la violence en Irak.Tandis que les pays émergents connaissent un tassement économique et des difficultés sociales, l’Europe sort lentement de sa crise et les États-Unis, grâce au pétrole et au gaz de schiste, connaissent une réindustrialisation.En Asie, la Chine assied sa prééminence au moment où le Japon envisage de s’affranchir de l’article 9 de sa constitution et de redevenir une puissance globale.De l’Égypte à la Tunisie, les révolutions arabes connaissent une nouvelle physionomie pendant que le continent africain se trouve confronté à de multiples crises, du Mali à la RCA... tout en devenant un pôle de croissance que nul ne peut désormais ignorer

Case-Based Predictions: An Axiomatic Approach to Prediction, Classification and Statistical Learning

I. GILBOA, D. Schmeidler

World Scientific Publishers, Economic Theory Series

2012



This book presents an axiomatic approach to the problems of prediction, classification, and statistical learning. Using methodologies from axiomatic decision theory, and, in particular, the authors' case-based decision theory, the present studies attempt to ask what inductive conclusions can be derived from existing databases. It is shown that simple consistency rules lead to similarity-weighted aggregation, akin to kernel-based methods. It is suggested that the similarity function be estimated from the data. The incorporation of rule-based reasoning is discussed.

Inverse Problems and High- Dimensional Estimation ; Stats in the Château summer school, revised lectures (P. Alquier, E. Gautier et G. Stoltz, éditeurs)

G. STOLTZ

Springer

2011



The 'Stats in the Château' summer school was held at the CRC château on the campus of HEC Paris, Jouy-en-Josas, France, from August 31 to September 4, 2009. This event was organized jointly by faculty members of three French academic institutions ? ENSAE ParisTech, the Ecole Polytechnique ParisTech, and HEC Paris ? which cooperate through a scientific foundation devoted to the decision sciences.The scientific content of the summer school was conveyed in two courses, one by Laurent Cavalier (Université Aix-Marseille I) on "Ill-posed Inverse Problems", and one by Victor Chernozhukov (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) on "High-dimensional Estimation with Applications to Economics". Ten invited researchers also presented either reviews of the state of the art in the field or of applications, or original research contributions.This volume contains the lecture notes of the two courses. Original research articles and a survey complement these lecture notes. Applications to economics are discussed in various contributions.

Enjeux diplomatiques et stratégiques 2010

P. CHAIGNEAU

Economica

2010



La crise a complexifié l'échiquier international. En rompant avec la politique de son prédécesseur, le Président Obama a redonné une image à l'Amérique. Il lui reste à réussir le plus difficile : sortir son pays des conflits post-11 septembre.De la dynamique de l'Asie orientale à la nouvelle politique du Brésil, la sortie de crise accélère l'émergence d'un système multipolaire.Un monde « post-américain » serait-il en train de naître alors que s'ouvre la deuxième décennie du XXIe siècle ?

Making Better Decisions: Decision Theory in Practice

I. GILBOA

Wiley-Blackwell

2010



Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. * Introduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions * Presentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment * Offers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy * Explains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems * Critically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques * Includes a web resource for teachers and students

Rational Choice

I. GILBOA

MIT Press, USA

2010



This book offers an introduction to some of the fundamental insights of rational choice theory. It draws on formal theories of microeconomics, decision making, games, and social choice, and on ideas developed in philosophy, psychology, and sociology. Itzhak Gilboa argues that economic theory has provided a set of powerful models and broad insights that have changed the way we think about everyday life. He focuses on basic insights of the rational choice paradigm'the general conceptualization rather than a particular theory'that survive recent (and well-justified) critiques of economic theory's various failures. Gilboa explains the main concepts, offering a nonmathematical guide to some of the main ideas developed in economic theory in the second half of the twentieth century. Chapters cover feasibility and desirability, utility maximization, constrained optimization, expected utility, probability and statistics, aggregation of preferences, games and equilibria, free markets, and rationality and emotions.

Statistique mathématique en action

V. Rivoirard, G. STOLTZ

Vuibert, France

2009



La statistique semble souvent, même aux yeux des probabilistes, une matière mathématique mystérieuse. Les tenants et aboutissants de la démarche statistique, son vocabulaire, son appel à des choix nécessaires et parfois subjectifs dans le traitement des données déroutent. L'idée de ce livre a germé au contact d'étudiants et de mathématiciens d'autres disciplines. Ce manuel propose dans une première partie un cours condensé de statistique mathématique de niveau master. Son originalité se situe dans la mise en action de la démarche et des notions fondamentales qui y sont présentées à travers huit thèmes couvrant un grand nombre de domaines de la statistique. Ceux-ci sont déclinés, dans une seconde partie, sous la forme de textes et de leurs corrigés. Ainsi, ce manuel ne se contente pas d'illustrer les notions du cours par des exemples mais il les rend vivantes et les met en perspective. En effet, il propose pour chaque thème l'intégralité de la mise en 'uvre de la démarche statistique : il construit tout d'abord un modèle statistique, qui constitue le cadre dans lequel sont élaborées des procédures d'estimation. Ces dernières sont alors évaluées non seulement théoriquement, mais aussi d'un point de vue pratique, par la confrontation à des données réelles ou simulées

Theory of Decision under Uncertainty

I. GILBOA

Cambridge University Press, Royaume-Uni

2009



This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions ' first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.' First book entirely on decision under uncertainty since Krepps 1988 Notes on the Theory of Choice ' Covers non-classical theories as well as classical ones ' Offers numerous examples, including ones in new axiomatic decision theory

Advances in Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty (Ed. avec J.D. Hey)

M. ABDELLAOUI

Springer

2008



Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.


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